Pambuyo pa kuchepetsedwa kwa mitengo yamitengo ya China ndi US, zidatani ndi mitengo ya katundu?
Malinga ndi "Joint Statement on China-US Economic and Trade Meeting in Geneva" yomwe idaperekedwa pa Meyi 12, 2025, mbali ziwirizi zidakwaniritsa mgwirizano wotsatira:
Misonkho idachepetsedwa kwambiri:US idachotsa 91% yamitengo yomwe idaperekedwa kuzinthu zaku China mu Epulo 2025, ndipo China nthawi yomweyo idachotsa mitengo yotsutsana ndi gawo lomwelo; pa 34% "kubwezerana msonkho", mbali zonse ziwiri zidayimitsa 24% ya chiwonjezeko (kusunga 10%) kwa masiku 90.
Kusintha kwa tarifi kumeneku mosakayikira kwasintha kwambiri ubale wachuma pakati pa China ndi US pazachuma ndi malonda. Masiku 90 otsatirawa adzakhala nthawi yofunika kwambiri kuti mbali ziwirizi zipitirize kukambirana ndikulimbikitsa kupititsa patsogolo mgwirizano wa zachuma ndi malonda.
Ndiye, zotsatira zake ndi zotani kwa ogulitsa kunja?
1. Kuchepetsa mtengo: Gawo loyamba la kuchepetsa msonkho likuyembekezeka kuchepetsa ndalama zamalonda za China ndi US ndi 12%. Pakadali pano, maoda akuchira pang'onopang'ono, mafakitale aku China akuchulukirachulukira kupanga, ndipo ogulitsa aku US akuyambitsanso ntchito.
2. Zoyembekeza za msonkho ndizokhazikika: mbali ziwirizi zakhazikitsa njira yochezerana kuti achepetse chiopsezo cha kusintha kwa ndondomeko, ndipo makampani akhoza kukonza ndondomeko yogula zinthu ndi ndondomeko zoyendetsera ndalama molondola.
Dziwani zambiri:
Zimatenga masitepe angati kuchokera kufakitale kupita kwa wotumiza womaliza?
Zokhudza mitengo ya katundu pambuyo pochepetsa mitengo:
Pambuyo pochepetsa mitengo yamitengo, ogulitsa kunja atha kufulumizitsa kubwezeretsanso kuti alande msika, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti pakhale kufunikira kwa malo otumizira pakanthawi kochepa, ndipo makampani ambiri otumizira alengeza kuti mitengo yakwera. Ndi kuchepetsedwa kwa mitengo yamitengo, makasitomala omwe amadikirira m'mbuyomu adayamba kutidziwitsa kukweza makontena oti tinyamule.
Kuchokera pamitengo yomwe yasinthidwa ndi makampani otumiza ku Senghor Logistics theka lachiwiri la Meyi (Meyi 15 mpaka Meyi 31, 2025), yakwera pafupifupi 50% poyerekeza ndi theka loyamba la mweziwo.Koma silingathe kukana funde lomwe likubwera la zotumiza. Aliyense akufuna kupezerapo mwayi pa nthawi yazenera ya masiku 90 kuti atumize, ndiye kuti nyengo yokwera kwambiri ibwera kale kuposa zaka zam'mbuyomu. Panthawi imodzimodziyo, ziyenera kuzindikirika kuti makampani otumiza katundu akutumiza mphamvu kubwerera ku mzere wa US, ndipo malowa ali olimba kale. Mtengo waMzere waku USyakwera kwambiri, ikuyendetsa mmwambaCanadandiSouth Americanjira. Monga tidaneneratu, mtengo ndi wokwera ndipo malo osungira ndi ovuta tsopano, ndipo tili otanganidwa kuthandiza makasitomala kutenga malo tsiku lililonse.
Mwachitsanzo, Hapag-Lloyd adalengeza kuti kuchokeraMeyi 15, 2025, GRI kuchokera ku Asia kupita ku West South America, East South America, Mexico, Central America ndi Caribbean adzakhalaUS $ 500 pa chidebe cha mapazi 20 ndi US $ 1,000 pa chidebe cha mapazi 40. (Mitengo ya Puerto Rico ndi US Virgin Islands ikwera kuyambira Juni 5.)
Pa Meyi 15, kampani yotumizira CMA CGM idalengeza kuti iyamba kulipiritsa zolipiritsa zanyengo yamsika pamsika wa Transpacific Eastbound kuchokera.Juni 15, 2025. Njirayi imachokera ku madoko onse ku Asia (kuphatikiza Kum'mawa) kapena kupita ku madoko onse ku United States (kupatula Hawaii) ndi Canada kapena malo akumtunda kudutsa madoko omwe ali pamwambapa. Mtengo wowonjezera udzakhalaUS$3,600 pachidebe cha 20ft ndi US$4,000 pa chidebe chilichonse cha 40ft.
Pa Meyi 23, Maersk adalengeza kuti ipereka chiwongolero chapamwamba cha PSS ku Far East kupita ku Central America ndi misewu ya Caribbean / South America West Coast, ndi njira20-foot chidebe chowonjezera cha US $ 1,000 ndi 40-foot chotengera chowonjezera $2,000 US$2,000. Idzayamba kugwira ntchito pa June 6, ndipo Cuba idzayamba kugwira ntchito pa June 21. Pa June 6, ndalama zowonjezera kuchokera ku China, Hong Kong, China, ndi Macau kupita ku Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, ndi Uruguay zidzaperekedwa.US $ 500 pazotengera za mapazi 20 ndi US $ 1,000 pazotengera za 40 mapazi, ndipo kuchokera ku Taiwan, China, iyamba kugwira ntchito kuyambira Juni 21.
Pa May 27, Maersk adalengeza kuti adzalipiritsa Wowonjezera Wolemera Kwambiri kuchokera ku Far East kupita ku West Coast ya South America, Central America ndi Caribbean kuyambira June 5. Izi ndizowonjezera katundu wolemetsa wazitsulo zowuma za 20-foot, ndi kuonjezera kwaUS $400idzaperekedwa pamene kulemera kotsimikizika (VGM) (> 20 metric tons) ya katunduyo idutsa malire olemera.
Kumbuyo kwa kukwera kwamitengo kwamakampani otumiza katundu kumabwera chifukwa cha zinthu zosiyanasiyana.
1. Ndondomeko yam'mbuyo ya US "reciprocal tariff" inasokoneza dongosolo la msika, zomwe zinachititsa kuti kuthetsedwa kwa mapulani ena otumiza katundu ku North America njira, kutsika kwakukulu kwa kusungitsa malo amsika, ndi kuyimitsidwa kapena kuchepetsedwa kwa njira zina zopita ku United States ndi pafupifupi 70%. Tsopano kuti mitengo yamitengo yasinthidwa ndipo kufunikira kwa msika kukuyembekezeka kukwera, makampani otumizira akuyesera kubweza zomwe zidatayika kale ndikukhazikitsa phindu pokweza mitengo.
2. Msika wapadziko lonse wapadziko lonse lapansi wapadziko lonse lapansi ukukumana ndi zovuta zambiri, monga kuchuluka kwa kuchulukana kwamadoko akulu ku Asia ndiEurope, vuto la ku Nyanja Yofiira lomwe likuchititsa kuti njira zidutse mu Africa, komanso kukwera mtengo kwa katundu, zomwe zachititsa makampani oyendetsa sitima kukweza mitengo ya katundu.
3. Kupereka ndi kufuna sikufanana. Makasitomala aku America ayika maoda akuchulukirachulukira, ndipo akufunikanso kubweza masheya. Amakhalanso ndi nkhawa kuti padzakhala kusintha kwamitengo yamtsogolo, kotero kufunikira kwa kutumiza katundu kuchokera ku China kwaphulika mu nthawi yochepa. Kukadapanda kukhala mkuntho wamkuntho wammbuyo, katundu wotumizidwa mu Epulo akadafika ku United States pofika pano.
Kuonjezera apo, pamene ndondomeko ya msonkho inaperekedwa mu April, makampani ambiri oyendetsa sitimayo adasamutsa mphamvu zawo zotumizira ku Ulaya ndi Latin America. Tsopano kufunikira kumeneku kwawonjezeka mwadzidzidzi, mphamvu zotumizira sizingakwaniritse zofunazo kwakanthawi, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti pakhale kusalinganika kwakukulu pakati pa kuperekera ndi kufunidwa, ndipo malo otumizira akhala olimba kwambiri.
Kuchokera pamalingaliro amtundu wapadziko lonse lapansi, kutsika kwamitengo kukuwonetsa kusintha kwa malonda aku China ndi US kuchoka pa "kulimbana" kupita ku "masewera olamulira", kukulitsa chidaliro chamsika ndikukhazikika kwapadziko lonse lapansi. Gwiritsirani ntchito nthawi yazenera ya kusinthasintha kwa katundu ndikusintha zogawika zamalamulo kukhala zopindulitsa zopikisana kudzera muzothetsera zosiyanasiyana komanso kukonza kusinthasintha kwa chain chain.
Koma panthawi imodzimodziyo, kukwera kwa mtengo ndi malo okhwima otumizira katundu pamsika wotumizira kwabweretsanso zovuta zatsopano kwa makampani amalonda akunja, kuonjezera ndalama zogulira katundu ndi zovuta zamayendedwe. Pakadali pano,Senghor Logistics ikutsatiranso mosamalitsa zomwe zikuchitika pamsika, kupatsa makasitomala machenjezo olumikizirana ndi tariff-katundu ndi njira zothetsera makonda kuti agwirizane ndi zomwe zachitika posachedwa pamalonda apadziko lonse lapansi.
Nthawi yotumiza: May-15-2025
