Mushure mekuderedzwa kwemitengo yeChina-US, chii chakaitika kumitengo yekutakura?
Zvinoenderana ne "Joint Statement paChina-US Economic and Trade Meeting muGeneva" yakabudiswa muna Chivabvu 12, 2025, mativi maviri aya akasvika pakubvumirana kukuru kunotevera:
Tariffs dzakaderedzwa zvakanyanya:iyo US yakadzima 91% yemitero yakatemerwa zvinhu zveChinese muna Kubvumbi 2025, uye China panguva imwe cheteyo yakadzima mitero yekupikisa yechikamu chimwe chete; ye34% "reciprocal tariff", mativi ese akamisa 24% yekuwedzera (kuchengeta 10%) kwemazuva makumi mapfumbamwe.
Uku kugadziridzwa kwemitero pasina mubvunzo ndiyo shanduko huru muChina-US hukama hwehupfumi nekutengeserana. Mazuva makumi mapfumbamwe anotevera ichava nguva yakakosha yekuti mativi maviri aya aenderere mberi nekutaurirana nekusimudzira kuenderera mberi kwekuvandudzwa kwehukama hwehupfumi nekutengeserana.
Saka, ndezvipi zvinokanganisa kune vanotenga kunze kwenyika?
1. Kuderedza mutengo: Chikamu chekutanga chekudzikisa mutero chinotarisirwa kuderedza China-US mari yekutengeserana ne12%. Parizvino, maodha ari kupora zvishoma nezvishoma, mafekitori eChinese ari kukurumidza kugadzira, uye vanopinda kunze kwenyika vekuUS vari kutangazve mapurojekiti.
2. Tariff tarisiro yakagadzikana: mativi maviri akagadzira nzira yekubvunzurudza kuderedza njodzi yekuchinja kwemitemo, uye makambani anogona kuronga kutenderera kwekutenga uye bhajeti rekugadzirisa zvakanyanya.
Dzidza zvimwe:
Matanho mangani ainotora kubva kufekitari kuenda kune wekupedzisira mutumwa?
Impact pamitengo yekutakura mushure mekuderedzwa kwemitero:
Mushure mekuderedzwa kwemutero, vanopinda kunze kwenyika vanogona kukurumidza kuzadzazve kuti vatore musika, zvichikonzera kuwedzera kwekuda kwenzvimbo yekutumira munguva pfupi, uye makambani mazhinji ekutakura akazivisa kuwedzera kwemitengo. Nekuderedzwa kwemitero, vatengi vakanga vakamirira kare vakatanga kutizivisa kuti tiise midziyo yekutakura.
Kubva pamitengo yekutakura zvinhu yakagadziridzwa nemakambani anotakura zvinhu kuenda kuSenghor Logistics kwehafu yechipiri yaChivabvu (Chivabvu 15 kusvika Chivabvu 31, 2025), yakawedzera ne50% kana ichienzaniswa nehafu yekutanga yemwedzi.Asi haigoni kupikisa mafungu ari kuuya ekutakura. Wese munhu anoda kutora mukana weiyi 90-mazuva hwindo nguva kutumira, saka iyo logistics yepamusoro mwaka ichauya kare kupfuura makore apfuura. Panguva imwecheteyo, zvinofanirwa kucherechedzwa kuti makambani ekutumira ari kuendesa huwandu kumashure kuUS line, uye nzvimbo yatove yakasimba. Mutengo weUS lineakasimuka zvakanyanya, achimhanyisaCanadianuyeSouth Americanzira. Sezvatakafanotaura, mutengo wakakwira uye nzvimbo yekuchengetera yakaoma ikozvino, uye isu takabatikana kubatsira vatengi kutora nzvimbo zuva rega rega.
Semuenzaniso, Hapag-Lloyd akazivisa kuti kubvaChivabvu 15, 2025, GRI kubva kuAsia kusvika kuWest South America, East South America, Mexico, Central America neCaribbean ichaveUS$500 pamudziyo une tsoka makumi maviri uye US$1 000 pagaba remamita makumi mana. (Mitengo yePuerto Rico neUS Virgin Islands ichakwira kubva munaChikumi 5.)
Musi wa15 Chivabvu, kambani yekutumira CMA CGM yakazivisa kuti ichatanga kubhadharisa mwaka wepamusoro wemari yekuwedzera kumusika weTranspacific Eastbound kubva.Chikumi 15, 2025. Nzira yacho inobva kumadoko ese muAsia (kusanganisira Far East) kana kufambisa kuenda kuchiteshi chese chekubuda muUnited States (kunze kweHawaii) neCanada kana nzvimbo dzemukati kuburikidza nezviteshi zviri pamusoro. Mari yekuwedzera ichaveUS$3,600 pamudziyo we20ft uye US$4,000 pamudziyo une 40ft.
Musi waChivabvu 23, Maersk yakazivisa kuti yaizobhadharisa mubhadharo wepamusoro mwaka wePSS kuFar East kuenda kuCentral America neCaribbean/South America West Coast nzira, ine20-foot container surcharge yeUS$1,000 uye 40-foot container muripo weUS$2,000. Ichatanga kushanda musi waJune 6, uye Cuba ichatanga kushanda musi waJune 21. Musi waJune 6, muripo wekuwedzera kubva kunyika yeChina, Hong Kong, China, uye Macau kuenda kuArgentina, Brazil, Paraguay, uye Uruguay uchabhadharwa.US$500 yemidziyo ine makumbo makumi maviri uye US$1,000 ye40-foot container, uye kubva kuTaiwan, China, ichatanga kushanda kubva munaJune 21.
Musi waChivabvu 27, Maersk yakazivisa kuti ichachaja Mutoro Wemutoro Unorema kubva kuFar East kuenda kuWest Coast yeSouth America, Central America neCaribbean kutanga kubva muna Chikumi 5. Iyi imwezve mari inorema yekuwedzera kwemidziyo yakaoma-mamita makumi maviri, uye muripo weUS $400ichachajwa kana gross huremu yakasimbiswa (VGM) (> 20 metric tons) yemutoro inodarika huremu.
Seri kwekuwedzera kwemutengo kwemakambani ekutumira mhedzisiro yezvinhu zvakasiyana.
1. Gwaro rekare reUS re "reciprocal tariff" rakakanganisa kurongeka kwemusika, zvichikonzera kudzimwa kwemamwe marongero ekutakura zvinhu munzira dzeNorth America, kudonha kwakanyanya kwekubhukidzwa kwemusika wenzvimbo, uye kumiswa kana kuderedzwa kwedzimwe nzira dzekuUnited States ne70%. Iye zvino mitero yakagadziridzwa uye kudiwa kwemusika kunotarisirwa kutora, makambani ekufambisa ari kuyedza kugadzirisa zvakarasikirwa zvakapfuura uye kudzikamisa purofiti nekukwidza mitengo.
2. Musika wepasi rose wekutakura zvinhu pachawo unotarisana nematambudziko mazhinji, akadai sekuwedzera kudhumhana muzviteshi zvikuru zveAsia uye.Europe, dambudziko reGungwa Dzvuku richikonzera kuti nzira dzidarike Africa, uye kuwanda kwemitengo yezvinhu, izvo zvaita kuti makambani anotakura zvinhu awedzere mitengo yekutakura zvinhu.
3. Kuwanikwa uye kudiwa hazvina kuenzana. Vatengi vekuAmerica vakaisa maodha achikwira, uye vari kuda kuzadzazve masheya. Vanoshushikana zvakare kuti pachava nekuchinja mumitengo yeramangwana, saka kudiwa kwekutakura zvinhu kubva kuChina kwakaputika munguva pfupi. Dai pakanga pasina dutu remutero wekare, zvinhu zvakatumirwa muna Kubvumbi zvingadai zvasvika kuUnited States parizvino.
Pamusoro pezvo, pakabudiswa mutemo wemitero muna Kubvumbi, makambani mazhinji ekutakura zvinhu akatamisa kugona kwavo kutumira kuEurope neLatin America. Ikozvino kudiwa uku kwakangoerekana kwawedzera, huwandu hwekutakura haugone kuzadzisa kudiwa kwechinguva, zvichikonzera kusaenzana kukuru pakati pekupa uye kudiwa, uye nzvimbo yekutumira yave yakaoma zvakanyanya.
Kubva pamaonero ezvekutengesa pasi rose, kudzikiswa kwemitero kunoratidza kuchinjika kwekutengeserana kweChina-US kubva pa "kunetsana" kuenda ku "mutambo wekutonga", kuwedzera chivimbo chemusika uye kudzikamisa cheni yekugovera pasi rose. Bata nguva yehwindo yekushanduka kwekutakura zvinhu uye shandura migove yepolicy kuita yemakwikwi mabhenefiti kuburikidza neakasiyana-siyana ekugadzirisa zvigadziriso uye kugovera chain flexibility kuvaka.
Asi panguva imwecheteyo, kuwedzera kwemutengo uye nzvimbo yakasimba yekutumira mumusika wekutumira zvakaunzawo matambudziko matsva kumakambani ekutengeserana ekunze, kuwedzera mari yekutakura uye matambudziko ekufambisa. Parizvino,Senghor Logistics iri zvakare kunyatsotevera maitiro emusika, ichipa vatengi tariff-yekutakura yekubatanidza yambiro uye yakagadziridzwa mhinduro kuti vabatane pamwe chete neyakajairwa yekutengeserana kwepasirese.
Dzidza zvimwe:
Nguva yekutumira: May-15-2025
