Emva kokuncitshiswa kwerhafu yempahla phakathi kweTshayina ne-US, kwenzeke ntoni kwizinga lempahla?
Ngokutsho kwe-"Joint Statement on China-US Economic and Trade Meeting in Geneva" eyakhutshwa ngoMeyi 12, 2025, la macala mabini afikelele kwisivumelwano esibalulekileyo esilandelayo:
Iirhafu zincitshiswe kakhulu:I-US irhoxise i-91% yeerhafu ezazibekwe kwiimpahla zaseTshayina ngo-Epreli 2025, kwaye iChina ngaxeshanye yarhoxisa iirhafu ezichaseneyo zomlinganiselo ofanayo; kwi-34% "yerhafu yokubuyisana", omabini amacala arhoxise i-24% yokunyuka (egcina i-10%) kangangeentsuku ezingama-90.
Olu hlengahlengiso lwerhafu ngokungathandabuzekiyo lutshintsho olukhulu kubudlelwane bezoqoqosho phakathi kweTshayina ne-US. Iintsuku ezingama-90 ezizayo ziya kuba lixesha elibalulekileyo lamacala omabini ukuba aqhubeke nokuxoxisana nokukhuthaza ukuphuculwa okuqhubekayo kobudlelwane bezoqoqosho norhwebo.
Ngoko ke, zithini iziphumo kubangenisi bempahla kwamanye amazwe?
1. Ukuncitshiswa kweendleko: Isigaba sokuqala sokunciphisa irhafu kulindeleke ukuba sinciphise iindleko zorhwebo phakathi kweTshayina ne-US nge-12%. Okwangoku, ii-odolo ziyabuya kancinci kancinci, iifektri zaseTshayina ziyakhawulezisa imveliso, kwaye abathumeli baseMelika baqalisa kwakhona iiprojekthi.
2. Ulindelo lweerhafu luzinzile: la macala mabini aseke indlela yokubonisana ukunciphisa umngcipheko wotshintsho lomgaqo-nkqubo, kwaye iinkampani zinokucwangcisa imijikelo yokuthenga kunye nohlahlo-lwabiwo mali lwezothutho ngokuchanekileyo.
Funda nzulu:
Zingaphi iinyathelo ezithathwayo ukusuka kumzi-mveliso ukuya kulowo uthunyelweyo wokugqibela?
Impembelelo kwizinga lokuthutha impahla emva kokuncitshiswa kwerhafu:
Emva kokuncitshiswa kwerhafu, abathumeli bamazwe banokuthi bakhawulezise ukuphinda bazalise ukuze bathabathe imakethi, nto leyo ekhokelela ekunyukeni kwemfuno yendawo yokuthumela impahla kwixesha elifutshane, kwaye iinkampani ezininzi zokuthumela impahla zibhengeze ukunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ngenxa yokuncipha kwerhafu, abathengi ababelinde ngaphambili baqala ukusazisa ukuba silayishe iikhonteyina ukuze zithuthwe.
Ukususela kwizinga lokuthutha impahla elihlaziyiweyo ziinkampani zokuthutha impahla ukuya kwiSenghor Logistics kwisiqingatha sesibini sikaMeyi (nge-15 kaMeyi ukuya kwi-31 kaMeyi, 2025), liye landa ngama-50% xa kuthelekiswa nesiqingatha sokuqala senyanga.Kodwa ayinakukwazi ukumelana nenani elikhulu leempahla ezithunyelwayo. Wonke umntu ufuna ukusebenzisa eli thuba leentsuku ezingama-90 zokuthumela, ngoko ke ixesha lokuphela kwento eza kuthunyelwa liza kufika ngaphambi kwexesha kunakwiminyaka edlulileyo. Kwangaxeshanye, kufuneka kuqatshelwe ukuba iinkampani zokuthumela zidlulisela umthamo wazo kumgca wase-US, kwaye indawo sele incinci. Ixabiso leUmgca waseMelikainyuke kakhulu, iqhubela phambiliwaseKhanadakwayeeMzantsi MelikaIindlela. Njengoko besitshilo kwangaphambili, ixabiso liphezulu kwaye indawo yokubhukisha inzima ngoku, kwaye sixakekile sinceda abathengi ukuba bathathe indawo yonke imihla.
Umzekelo, uHapag-Lloyd ubhengeze ukuba ukususelaNgomhla we-15 kuCanzibe, ngo-2025, i-GRI ukusuka e-Asia ukuya eNtshona Mzantsi Melika, eMpuma Mzantsi Melika, eMexico, eMbindi Melika naseCaribbean iya kubaI-US$500 ngesikhongozeli esingangeenyawo ezingama-20 kunye ne-US$1,000 ngesikhongozeli esingangeenyawo ezingama-40. (Amaxabiso ePuerto Rico nakwiZiqithi zase-US Virgin aza kunyuka ukususela nge-5 kaJuni.)
Ngomhla we-15 kuCanzibe, inkampani yokuthumela imithwalo i-CMA CGM yabhengeza ukuba iza kuqalisa ukuhlawulisa iintlawulo ezongezelelweyo zexesha lonyaka kwimarike yaseTranspacific Eastbound ukusukaNge-15 kaJuni 2025Indlela ivela kuzo zonke izibuko e-Asia (kuquka neMpuma Ekude) okanye idlula kuzo zonke izibuko zokukhupha amanzi e-United States (ngaphandle kweHawaii) naseKhanada okanye kwiindawo ezingaphakathi ngezibuko ezingasentla. Ixabiso elongezelelweyo liza kubaI-US$3,600 ngesikhongozeli esingama-20ft kunye ne-US$4,000 ngesikhongozeli esingama-40ft.
Ngomhla wama-23 kuCanzibe, iMaersk yabhengeza ukuba iza kunyanzelisa intlawulo eyongezelelweyo yePSS kwixesha lonyaka kwiMpuma Ekude ukuya kwiindlela zaseMbindini Melika nakwiCaribbean/South America West Coast, kunyeIntlawulo eyongezelelweyo yesikhongozeli esingangeenyawo ezingama-20 eyi-US$1,000 kunye nentlawulo eyongezelelweyo yesikhongozeli esingangeenyawo ezingama-40 eyi-US$2,000Iza kuqala ukusebenza ngoJuni 6, kwaye iCuba iza kuqala ukusebenza ngoJuni 21. Ngomhla wesi-6 kuJuni, intlawulo eyongezelelweyo evela kwilizwekazi laseTshayina, eHong Kong, eTshayina, naseMacau ukuya eArgentina, eBrazil, eParaguay, naseUruguay iza kubaIikhonteyina ezingama-20 eemitha ezingama-500 kunye neekhonteyina ezingama-1,000 zeemitha ezingama-40, kwaye ukusuka eTaiwan, eTshayina, iza kuqala ukusebenza ukususela nge-21 kaJuni.
Ngomhla wama-27 kuCanzibe, iMaersk yabhengeza ukuba iza kuhlawulisa i-Heavy Load Surcharge ukusuka eMpuma Ekude ukuya kuNxweme oluseNtshona lwaseMzantsi Melika, eMelika Ephakathi kunye neCaribbean ukususela ngomhla wesi-5 kuJuni. Lo ngumrhumo owongezelelweyo womthwalo onzima kwiikhonteyina ezomileyo ezingama-20-foot, kunye nomrhumo owongezelelweyo we-I-US$400iya kuhlawuliswa xa ubunzima obuqinisekisiweyo (VGM) (> iitoni ezingama-20 zemetric) bomthwalo bugqitha umda wobunzima.
Emva kokunyuka kwamaxabiso eenkampani zokuthutha impahla kukho iziphumo zezinto ezahlukeneyo.
1. Umgaqo-nkqubo wangaphambili we-"reciprocal tariff" wase-US uphazamise umyalelo wemarike, nto leyo ebangele ukuba kurhoxiswe ezinye izicwangciso zokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwiindlela zaseMntla Melika, ukwehla okukhulu kokubhukisha iimarike ezikufutshane, kunye nokumiswa okanye ukuncitshiswa kwezinye iindlela eziya e-United States malunga nama-70%. Ngoku ekubeni iirhafu zilungisiwe kwaye imfuno yemarike kulindeleke ukuba inyuke, iinkampani zokuthutha zizama ukubuyisela ilahleko zangaphambili kunye nokuzinzisa inzuzo ngokunyusa amaxabiso.
2. Imakethi yenqanawa yehlabathi ijongene nemingeni emininzi, njengokwanda kokuxinana kwiindawo ezinkulu zaseAsia naseiYurophu, ingxaki yoLwandle oluBomvu ebangela ukuba iindlela zidlule eAfrika, kunye nokunyuka kweendleko zothutho, zonke eziye zabangela ukuba iinkampani zothutho zonyuse amaxabiso othutho.
3. Ukubonelela ngempahla kunye nemfuno azilingani. Abathengi baseMelika babeke ii-odolo phezulu, kwaye bafuna ukuphinda bazalise izitokhwe. Bakwaxhalabile ukuba kuya kubakho utshintsho kwiirhafu zexesha elizayo, ngoko ke imfuno yokuthunyelwa kwempahla evela eTshayina ikhule kakhulu kwixesha elifutshane. Ukuba bekungakhange kubekho isiphepho serhafu sangaphambili, iimpahla ezithunyelwe ngo-Epreli ngebezifikile eMelika ngoku.
Ukongeza, xa umgaqo-nkqubo werhafu wawukhutshwa ngo-Epreli, iinkampani ezininzi zokuthumela iimpahla zadlulisela umthamo wazo wokuthumela iimpahla eYurophu naseLatin America. Ngoku ekubeni imfuno ibuyele umva ngequbuliso, umthamo wokuthumela iimpahla awukwazi ukuhlangabezana nemfuno okwethutyana, nto leyo ebangele ukungalingani okukhulu phakathi kokunikezelwa kwempahla kunye nemfuno, kwaye indawo yokuthumela impahla iye yaba nzima kakhulu.
Ngokwembono yekhonkco lokubonelela ngempahla kwihlabathi liphela, ukuncitshiswa kweerhafu kuphawula utshintsho kurhwebo phakathi kweTshayina ne-US ukusuka "kwimbambano" ukuya "kumdlalo wokulawula", kukhulisa ukuzithemba kwemarike kunye nokuzinzisa ikhonkco lokubonelela ngempahla kwihlabathi liphela. Sebenzisa ixesha elivulekileyo lokuguquguquka kwempahla kwaye uguqule izahlulo zomgaqo-nkqubo zibe ziingenelo zokhuphiswano ngokusebenzisa izisombululo ezahlukeneyo zezothutho kunye nokwakhiwa kokuguquguquka kwekhonkco lokubonelela ngempahla.
Kodwa kwangaxeshanye, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nendawo encinci yokuthumela impahla kwimarike yokuthumela impahla kuzise nemingeni emitsha kwiinkampani zorhwebo lwangaphandle, okwandisa iindleko zothutho kunye nobunzima bokuthutha impahla. Okwangoku,I-Senghor Logistics ikwalandela ngokusondeleyo iindlela zemarike, inika abathengi izilumkiso zonxibelelwano lwerhafu kunye nemithwalo kunye nezisombululo ezenzelwe wena ukuze bajongane kunye nesiqhelo esitsha sorhwebo lwehlabathi.
Ixesha leposi: Meyi-15-2025
