Ngemva kokwehliswa kwentela ye-China-US, kwenzekeni ngezindleko zokuthutha impahla?
Ngokusho kwe-"Joint Statement on China-US Economic and Trade Meeting in Geneva" eyakhishwa ngoMeyi 12, 2025, izinhlangothi zombili zafinyelela esivumelwaneni esilandelayo esibalulekile:
Izindleko zehliswe kakhulu:I-US ikhansele u-91% wentela eyayibekwe ezimpahleni zaseShayina ngo-Ephreli 2025, kanti iShayina ikhansele ngasikhathi sinye intela ephikisanayo yesilinganiso esifanayo; "yentela yokubuyisana" engu-34%, zombili izinhlangothi zamisa u-24% wokwenyuka (okugcina u-10%) izinsuku ezingu-90.
Lokhu kulungiswa kwentela ngokungangabazeki kuyisici esibalulekile soguquko ebudlelwaneni bezomnotho nezokuhwebelana phakathi kweShayina ne-US. Izinsuku ezingu-90 ezizayo zizoba yisikhathi esibalulekile sokuba izinhlangothi zombili ziqhubeke nokuxoxisana futhi zikhuthaze ukuthuthukiswa okuqhubekayo kobudlelwano bezomnotho nezokuhwebelana.
Ngakho-ke, yimiphi imiphumela kubangenisi?
1. Ukwehliswa kwezindleko: Isigaba sokuqala sokwehliswa kwentela kulindeleke ukuthi sinciphise izindleko zokuhweba phakathi kweShayina ne-US ngo-12%. Njengamanje, ama-oda ayalulama kancane kancane, izimboni zaseShayina ziyasheshisa ukukhiqiza, kanti abangenisi base-US baqala kabusha amaphrojekthi.
2. Okulindelwe yizintela kuzinzile: izinhlangothi zombili sezisungule indlela yokubonisana yokunciphisa ubungozi bokushintsha kwenqubomgomo, futhi izinkampani zingahlela imijikelezo yokuthenga kanye nesabelomali sezokuthutha ngokunembe kakhudlwana.
Funda kabanzi:
Zingaki izinyathelo ezithathwayo kusukela efektri kuya kumthumeli wokugcina?
Umthelela emananini empahla ngemva kokwehliswa kwentela:
Ngemva kokwehliswa kwentela, abangenisi bangase basheshise ukugcwalisa kabusha ukuze babambe imakethe, okuholela ekukhuleni kwesidingo sendawo yokuthumela impahla esikhathini esifushane, futhi izinkampani eziningi zokuthumela impahla zimemezele ukwenyuka kwentengo. Ngokwehla kwentela, amakhasimende ayelinde ngaphambili aqala ukusazisa ukuthi silayishe amakhonteyina ukuze athuthwe.
Kusukela emananini okuthutha impahla abuyekezwe yizinkampani zokuthumela kuya ku-Senghor Logistics engxenyeni yesibili kaMeyi (Meyi 15 kuya kuMeyi 31, 2025), kukhuphuke cishe ngo-50% uma kuqhathaniswa nengxenye yokuqala yenyanga.Kodwa ayikwazi ukumelana negagasi elizayo lokuthunyelwa kwempahla. Wonke umuntu ufuna ukusizakala ngalesi sikhathi sezinsuku ezingu-90 sokuthunyelwa kwempahla, ngakho-ke isizini esiphezulu sempahla sizofika ngaphambi kwesikhathi kunaseminyakeni edlule. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi izinkampani zokuthumela impahla zidlulisela umthamo emuva emgqeni wase-US, futhi isikhala sesivele sincane. Intengo yeUmugqa wase-USikhuphuke kakhulu, iqhubela phambiliIsiKhanadafuthiINingizimu Melikaimizila. Njengoba besibikezele, intengo iphezulu futhi indawo yokubhukha inzima manje, futhi simatasa sisiza amakhasimende ukuthi athathe indawo nsuku zonke.
Isibonelo, uHapag-Lloyd umemezele ukuthi kusukela15 Meyi 2025, i-GRI kusukela e-Asia kuya eNtshonalanga Ningizimu Melika, eMpumalanga Ningizimu Melika, eMexico, eMelika Ephakathi naseCaribbean izobaUS$500 ngesitsha esingamamitha angu-20 kanye no-US$1,000 ngesitsha esingamamitha angu-40. (Amanani ePuerto Rico kanye ne-US Virgin Islands azokhuphuka kusukela ngoJuni 5.)
Ngomhlaka-15 Meyi, inkampani yokuthumela izimpahla i-CMA CGM yamemezela ukuthi izoqala ukukhokhisa izimali ezengeziwe zesizini ephezulu emakethe yaseTranspacific Eastbound kusukela15 Juni 2025. Umzila uvela kuzo zonke izikhumulo e-Asia (kufaka phakathi iMpumalanga Ekude) noma udlulela kuzo zonke izikhumulo zokukhipha izimpahla e-United States (ngaphandle kweHawaii) naseCanada noma ezindaweni zangaphakathi ngezindawo ezingenhla. Izindleko ezengeziwe zizobaUS$3,600 ngesitsha esingamamitha angu-20 kanye no-US$4,000 ngesitsha esingamamitha angu-40.
Ngomhlaka-23 Meyi, iMaersk yamemezela ukuthi izobeka i-PSS eyengeziwe yesizini eMpumalanga Ekude eya eMelika Ephakathi kanye nemizila yaseCaribbean/South America West Coast, ngeInhlawulo eyengeziwe yesitsha esingamamitha angu-20 engu-US$1,000 kanye nenhlawulo eyengeziwe yesitsha esingamamitha angu-40 engu-US$2,000Izoqala ukusebenza ngoJuni 6, kanti iCuba izoqala ukusebenza ngoJuni 21. Juni 6, inkokhelo eyengeziwe evela ezwenikazi laseShayina, eHong Kong, eShayina, naseMacau iya e-Argentina, eBrazil, eParaguay nase-Uruguay izobaUS$500 ngezitsha ezingamafidi angu-20 kanye no-US$1,000 ngezitsha ezingamafidi angu-40, kanye naseTaiwan, eShayina, izoqala ukusebenza kusukela mhla zingama-21 kuNhlangulana.
Ngomhlaka-27 Meyi, iMaersk yamemezela ukuthi izokhokhisa i-Heavy Load Surcharge evela eMpumalanga Ekude iye oGwini oluseNtshonalanga yeNingizimu Melika, eMelika Ephakathi kanye naseCaribbean kusukela ngoJuni 5. Lokhu kuyinkokhelo eyengeziwe yomthwalo osindayo yezitsha ezomile ezingamafidi angu-20, kanye nenkokhelo eyengeziwe ye-US$400izokhokhiswa uma isisindo esiqinisekisiwe (VGM) (> amathani angu-20 metric) sempahla sidlula umkhawulo wesisindo.
Ukwenyuka kwentengo yezinkampani zokuthumela kubangelwa yizinto ezahlukahlukene ngemuva kwalokho.
1. Inqubomgomo yangaphambilini ye-"reciprocal tariff" yase-US yaphazamisa ukuhleleka kwemakethe, okwaholela ekukhanselweni kwezinye izinhlelo zokuthunyelwa kwempahla emizileni yaseNyakatho Melika, ukwehla okukhulu kokubhukha emakethe, kanye nokumiswa noma ukwehla kweminye imizila eya e-United States cishe ngo-70%. Manje njengoba intela isilungisiwe futhi isidingo semakethe kulindeleke ukuthi sikhuphuke, izinkampani zokuthumela zizama ukulungisa ukulahlekelwa kwangaphambilini nokuqinisa inzuzo ngokunyusa amanani.
2. Imakethe yemikhumbi yomhlaba wonke ibhekene nezinselele eziningi, njengokwanda kokuminyana emachwebeni amakhulu e-Asia kanye nase-Asia.IYurophu, inkinga yoLwandle Olubomvu ebangela imizila ukudlula i-Afrika, kanye nokwanda kwezindleko zokuthutha, konke okuye kwashukumisela izinkampani zokuthutha ukuba zinyuse amanani okuthutha impahla.
3. Ukunikezwa kanye nesidingo akulingani. Amakhasimende aseMelika abeke ama-oda aphezulu, futhi adinga ukugcwaliswa kabusha kwamasheya ngokushesha. Akhathazekile nangokuthi kuzoba nezinguquko emananini esikhathi esizayo, ngakho-ke isidingo sokuthunyelwa kwempahla evela eShayina sikhuphuke kakhulu esikhathini esifushane. Ukube bekungenjalo isiphepho semali yentela sangaphambilini, izimpahla ezithunyelwe ngo-Ephreli ngabe zifike e-United States manje.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, lapho kukhishwa inqubomgomo yentela ngo-Ephreli, izinkampani eziningi zokuthumela zidlulisele umthamo wazo wokuthumela eYurophu naseLatin America. Manje njengoba isidingo sesiphinde sanda ngokuzumayo, umthamo wokuthumela awukwazi ukuhlangabezana nesidingo isikhashana, okuholele ekungalingani okukhulu phakathi kokunikezwa nesidingo, futhi isikhala sokuthumela sesinciphile kakhulu.
Ngokombono wochungechunge lokuphakelwa komhlaba wonke, ukwehliswa kwentela kuphawula ukushintsha kokuhwebelana kwe-China-US kusuka "ekubhekaneni" kuya "ekulawuleni umdlalo", kukhulisa ukuzethemba kwemakethe kanye nokuzinzisa uchungechunge lokuphakelwa komhlaba wonke. Sebenzisa isikhathi sokushintshashintsha kwempahla futhi uguqule izinzuzo zenqubomgomo zibe izinzuzo zokuncintisana ngokusebenzisa izixazululo ezahlukahlukene zezokuthutha kanye nokwakhiwa kokuguquguquka kochungechunge lokuphakelwa.
Kodwa ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukwenyuka kwentengo kanye nendawo encane yokuthumela impahla emakethe yokuthumela impahla nakho kulethe izinselele ezintsha ezinkampanini zokuhweba kwamanye amazwe, okwandisa izindleko zezokuthutha kanye nobunzima bokuthutha. Njengamanje,I-Senghor Logistics nayo ilandela eduze izitayela zemakethe, inikeza amakhasimende izixwayiso zokuxhumanisa intela nempahla kanye nezixazululo ezenziwe ngokwezifiso ukuze babhekane ngokubambisana nomkhuba omusha wokuhwebelana komhlaba wonke.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Meyi-15-2025
