Ngemva kokwehliswa kwentela yase-China ne-US, kwenzekani ngamanani wempahla?
Ngokusho "kweSitatimende Esihlanganyelwe Somhlangano Wezomnotho Nezohwebo wase-China-US e-Geneva" esikhishwe ngoMeyi 12, 2025, lezi zinhlangothi zombili zafinyelela ukuvumelana okubalulekile okulandelayo:
Izintengo zehliswe kakhulu:i-US ikhansele u-91% wezindleko ezibekwe ezimpahleni zaseShayina ngo-April 2025, futhi i-China ngesikhathi esifanayo yakhansela amanani entengo alingana nengxenye efanayo; ngo-34% "intela yokubuyisana", izinhlangothi zombili zimise u-24% wokwenyuka (ukugcina u-10%) izinsuku ezingama-90.
Lokhu kulungiswa kwentela ngokungangabazeki kuyinguquko enkulu ebudlelwaneni bezomnotho nezohwebo base-China-US. Izinsuku ezingama-90 ezizayo zizoba isikhathi esibalulekile sokuthi izinhlangothi zombili ziqhubeke nokuxoxisana futhi zikhuthaze ukuqhubeka nokwenza ngcono ubudlelwano bomnotho nohwebo.
Ngakho-ke, imiphi imithelela kubangenisi?
1. Ukwehliswa kwezindleko: Isigaba sokuqala sokuncishiswa kwentela kulindeleke ukuthi sehlise izindleko zohwebo lwase-China-US ngo-12%. Njengamanje, ama-oda ayalulama kancane kancane, izimboni zaseShayina ziyasheshisa ukukhiqiza, futhi abangenisi base-US baqala kabusha amaphrojekthi.
2. Izindleko ezilindelweyo zizinzile: izinhlangothi zombili zisungule indlela yokubonisana ukuze kuncishiswe ingcuphe yokuguqulwa kwenqubomgomo, futhi izinkampani zingahlela imijikelezo yokuthenga kanye nesabelomali sezokuthutha ngokunembe kakhudlwana.
Funda kabanzi:
Zingaki izinyathelo ezithathayo ukusuka efekthri kuya kumthumeli wokugcina?
Umthelela kumazinga wempahla ngemva kokwehliswa kwentela:
Ngemuva kokwehliswa kwentela, abangenisi bangase basheshise ukugcwalisa ukuze babambe imakethe, okuholela ekukhuleni kwesidingo sendawo yokuthutha esikhathini esifushane, futhi izinkampani eziningi zemikhumbi zimemezele ukwenyuka kwamanani. Ngokuncishiswa kwamanani entengo, amakhasimende abelindile aqala ukusazisa ukuthi silayishe amabhokisi okuthutha.
Kusukela kumanani wempahla abuyekezwa yizinkampani ezithumela ngemikhumbi kuya ku-Senghor Logistics engxenyeni yesibili kaMeyi (Meyi 15 kuya kuMeyi 31, 2025), inyuke cishe ngo-50% uma iqhathaniswa nengxenye yokuqala yenyanga.Kodwa ayikwazi ukumelana negagasi elizayo lokuthunyelwa. Wonke umuntu ufuna ukusebenzisa leli thuba lewindi lezinsuku ezingama-90 ukuze athumele, ngakho-ke isizini ephezulu yezokuthutha izofika ngaphambi kwesikhathi kunaseminyakeni edlule. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi izinkampani zemikhumbi zidlulisela umthamo emuva kulayini wase-US, futhi isikhala sesivele siqinile. Intengo ye-Ulayini wase-USikhuphuke kakhulu, ishayela phezuluCanadianfuthiINingizimu Melikaimizila. Njengoba sibikezele, intengo iphezulu futhi indawo yokubhuka inzima manje, futhi simatasa sisiza amakhasimende ukuba abambe isikhala nsuku zonke.
Ngokwesibonelo, Hapag-Lloyd umemezele ukuthi kusukelaMeyi 15, 2025, i-GRI esuka e-Asia iye eNtshonalanga Melika, eMpumalanga Melika, eMexico, eMelika Ephakathi naseCaribbean izobaUS$500 ngesiqukathi esingamamitha angu-20 kanye ne-US$1,000 ngesiqukathi esingamamitha angu-40. (Amanani e-Puerto Rico nase-US Virgin Islands azokwenyuka kusukela ngoJuni 5.)
NgoMeyi 15, inkampani yokuthumela imikhumbi i-CMA CGM yamemezela ukuthi izoqala ukushaja izinkokhelo zesizini eziphezulu zemakethe yeTranspacific Eastbound kusuka.Juni 15, 2025. Umzila usuka kuwo wonke amachweba ase-Asia (okuhlanganisa neMpumalanga Ekude) noma udlula kuwo wonke amachweba okukhishwa e-United States (ngaphandle kwaseHawaii) nase-Canada noma amaphoyinti aphakathi nezwe ngokusebenzisa izimbobo ezingenhla. Izindleko zenkokhelo eyengeziwe zizobaUS$3,600 ngesiqukathi esingu-20ft kanye no-US$4,000 ngesiqukathi esingu-40ft.
NgoMeyi 23, iMaersk yamemezela ukuthi izokhokhisa isizini ephezulu ye-PSS eMpumalanga Ekude ukuya eMelika Ephakathi kanye nemizila yaseCaribbean/South America West Coast,Inkokhelo yesiqukathi esingamamitha angu-20 engu-$1,000 kanye nenkokhelo yesiqukathi esingamamitha angu-40 engu-US$2,000. Izoqala ukusebenza ngoJuni 6, futhi iCuba izoqala ukusebenza ngoJuni 21. NgoJuni 6, inkokhiso eyengeziwe esuka ezweni laseChina, iHong Kong, iChina, neMacau iye e-Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, ne-Uruguay izokhokhiswa.US$500 yeziqukathi ezingamamitha angama-20 kanye ne-US$1,000 yeziqukathi ezingamamitha angama-40, futhi usuka eTaiwan, eChina, uzoqala ukusebenza kusukela ngoJuni 21.
Ngomhla zingama-27 kuNhlaba, iMaersk yamemezela ukuthi izokhokhisa Inhlawulo Yomthwalo Onzima kusukela eMpumalanga Ekude kuya oGwini oluseNtshonalanga yeNingizimu Melika, Melika Ephakathi naseCaribbean kusukela ngoJuni 5. Lena enye inhlawulo enzima yomthwalo osindayo weziqukathi ezomile ezingamamitha angu-20, kanye nenkokhelo eyengeziweUS$400izokhokhiswa uma isisindo se-gross esiqinisekisiwe (VGM) (> 20 metric tons) somthwalo sidlula umkhawulo wesisindo.
Ngemuva kokukhuphuka kwentengo yezinkampani zemikhumbi kuwumphumela wezinto ezahlukahlukene.
1. Inqubomgomo yangaphambilini "yentela ebuyiselanayo" yase-US iphazamise ukuhleleka kwemakethe, okuholele ekukhanselweni kwamanye amapulani okuthunyelwa kwempahla emizileni yaseNyakatho Melika, ukwehla okukhulu ekubhukheni kwezimakethe zendawo, kanye nokumiswa noma ukuncishiswa kweminye imizila eya e-United States cishe ngo-70%. Manje njengoba amanani entengo aselungisiwe futhi isidingo semakethe kulindeleke ukuthi sikhule, izinkampani zemikhumbi zizama ukubuyisela ukulahlekelwa kwangaphambili futhi zinzinze inzuzo ngokukhuphula amanani.
2. Imakethe yemikhumbi yomhlaba wonke ngokwayo ibhekene nezinselelo eziningi, njengokunyuka kwesiminyaminya emachwebeni amakhulu e-Asia kanyeEYurophu, inhlekelele yoLwandle Olubomvu ebangela imizila ukuba idlule e-Afrika, kanye nokwanda kwezindleko zezokuthutha, konke okuye kwabangela izinkampani zemikhumbi ukuba zinyuse amanani ezimpahla.
3. Ukunikezwa kanye nesidingo akufani. Amakhasimende aseMelika afake ama-oda akhuphukayo, futhi anesidingo esiphuthumayo sokugcwalisa amasheya. Baphinde bakhathazeke ngokuthi kuzoba nezinguquko ezindlekweni ezizayo, ngakho-ke isidingo sokuthuthwa kwempahla evela eChina siqhume ngesikhathi esifushane. Ukube besingekho isivunguvungu sentengo yangaphambilini, izimpahla ezithunyelwe ngo-Ephreli ngabe sezifikile e-United States manje.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, lapho inqubomgomo yentela ikhishwa ngo-April, izinkampani eziningi zemikhumbi zadlulisela amandla azo okuthumela e-Europe naseLatin America. Manje leso sidingo sesikhuphuke ngokuzumayo, umthamo wokuthutha awukwazi ukuhlangabezana nesidingo isikhashana, okubangele ukungalingani okukhulu phakathi kokunikezwa kanye nesidingo, futhi indawo yokuthumela isiba nzima kakhulu.
Ngokombono we-supply chain yomhlaba wonke, ukuncishiswa kwezintengo kuphawula ukushintsha kohwebo phakathi kwe-China ne-US kusukela "ekungqubuzaneni" kuya "kumdlalo wokubusa", okuthuthukisa ukuzethemba kwezimakethe nokuzinzisa uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka emhlabeni wonke. Bamba isikhathi sewindi sokuguquguquka kwempahla futhi uguqule izabelo zenqubomgomo zibe izinzuzo ezincintisanayo ngokusebenzisa izixazululo ezihlukene zezokuthutha kanye nokwakhiwa kokuguquguquka kwe-supply chain.
Kodwa ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukukhuphuka kwentengo kanye nendawo yokuthutha eqinile emakethe yemikhumbi nayo ilethe izinselelo ezintsha ezinkampanini zohwebo lwangaphandle, ukwanda kwezindleko zezokuthutha kanye nobunzima bokuthutha. Okwamanje,I-Senghor Logistics nayo ilandela eduze izinkambiso zemakethe, ihlinzeka amakhasimende ngezexwayiso zokuxhumanisa intela nempahla kanye nezixazululo ezenziwe ngokwezifiso zokubhekana ngokuhlanganyela nokujwayelekile okusha kohwebo lomhlaba.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: May-15-2025
