When are the peak and off-seasons for international air freight? How do air freight prices change?
As a freight forwarder, we understand that managing supply chain costs is a crucial aspect of your business. One of the most significant factors affecting your bottom line is the fluctuating cost of international air freight. Next, Senghor Logistics will break down the air cargo peak and off-peak seasons and how much you can expect rates to change.
When are the Peak Seasons (High Demand & High Rates)?
The air cargo market is driven by global consumer demand, manufacturing cycles, and holidays. The peak seasons are generally predictable:
1. The Grand Peak: Q4 (October to December)
This is the busiest period of the year. Regardless of the shipping method, this is traditionally peak season for logistics and transportation due to high demand. It's a "perfect storm" driven by:
Holiday Sales: Inventory buildup for Christmas, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday in North America and Europe.
Chinese Golden Week: A national holiday in China in early October where most factories shut down for a week. This creates a massive surge before the holiday as shippers rush to get goods out, and another surge after as they scramble to catch up.
Limited Capacity: Passenger flights, which carry about half of the world's air cargo in their bellies, can be reduced due to seasonal schedules, squeezing capacity further.
In addition, the increased demand for electronic product charter flights starting in October, such as for Apple's new product launches, will also drive up freight rates.
2. The Secondary Peak: Late Q1 to Early Q2 (February to April)
This surge is primarily fueled by:
Chinese New Year: The date changes each year (typically January or February). Similar to Golden Week, this extended factory closure in China and across Asia causes a massive pre-holiday rush to ship goods, severely impacting capacity and rates from all Asian origins.
Post-New Year Re-stocking: Retailers replenish inventory sold during the holiday season.
Other smaller peaks can occur around events like unforeseen disruptions (e.g., worker strikes, sudden spikes in e-commerce demand), or policy factors, such as this year's changes in US import tariffs on China, will lead to concentrated shipments in May and June, increasing freight costs..
When are the Off-Peak Seasons (Lower Demand & Better Rates)?
The traditional quieter periods are:
Mid-Year Lull: June to July
The gap between the Chinese New Year rush and the start of the Q4 buildup. Demand is relatively stable.
Post-Q4 Calm: January (after the first week) and Late August to September
January sees a sharp drop in demand after the holiday frenzy.
Late summer is often a window of stability before the Q4 storm begins.
Important Note: "Off-peak" doesn't always mean “low”. The global air cargo market remains dynamic, and even these periods can see volatility due to specific regional demand or economic factors.
How Much Do Air Freight Rates Fluctuate?
Fluctuations can be dramatic. Since prices fluctuate weekly or even daily, we cannot provide exact figures. Here’s a general idea of what to expect:
Off-Peak to Peak Season Swings: It is not uncommon for rates from key origins like China and Southeast Asia to North America and Europe to “double or even triple” during the height of the Q4 or Chinese New Year rush compared to off-peak levels.
The Baseline: Consider a general market rate from Shanghai to Los Angeles. In a quiet period, it might be around $2.00 - $5.00 per kilogram. During a severe peak season, that same rate could easily jump to $5.00 - $12.00 per kilogram or higher, especially for last-minute shipments.
Additional Costs: Beyond the basic air freight rate (which covers airport-to-airport transport), be prepared for higher charges during peaks due to limited resources. This includes, for example:
Peak Season Surcharges or Seasonal Surcharge: Airlines formally add this fee during busy periods.
Security Surcharges: Can increase with volume.
Terminal Handling Fees: Busier airports can lead to delays and higher costs.
Strategic Advice for Importers from Senghor Logistics
Planning is your most powerful tool to mitigate these seasonal impacts. Here’s our advice:
1. Plan Far, Far in Advance:
Q4 Shipping: Start conversations with your suppliers and freight forwarder in July or August. Book your air cargo space 3 to 6 weeks or earlier in advance during the peak.
Chinese New Year Shipping: You could plan before the holiday. Aim to have your goods shipped at least 2 to 4 weeks before factories close. If your cargo isn't flown out before the shutdown, it will be stuck in the tsunami of freight waiting to leave after the holiday.
2. Be Flexible: If possible, consider flexibility with:
Routing: Alternative airports can sometimes offer better capacity and rates.
Shipping Method: Separating urgent and non-urgent shipments can save costs. For example, urgent shipments can be shipped by air, while non-urgent shipments can be shipped by sea. Please discuss this with the freight forwarder.
3. Strengthen Communication:
With Your Supplier: Get accurate production and ready dates. Delays at the factory may result in increased shipping costs.
With Your Freight Forwarder: Keep us in the loop. The more visibility we have on your upcoming shipments, the better we can strategize, negotiate long-term rates, and secure space on your behalf.
4. Manage Your Expectations:
During peak times, everything is stretched. Expect potential delays at origin airports, longer transit times due to circuitous routings, and less flexibility. Building buffer time into your supply chain is essential.
The seasonal nature of air freight is a force of nature in logistics. Planning further ahead than you think you need to, and partnering closely with a knowledgeable freight forwarder, you can navigate the peaks and valleys successfully, protect your margins, and ensure your products reach the market on time.
Senghor Logistics has our own contracts with airlines, providing first-hand air freight space and freight rates. We also offer weekly charter flights from China to Europe and the United States at affordable prices.
Ready to build a smarter shipping strategy? Reach out to us today to discuss your annual forecast and how we can help you navigate the coming seasons.
Post time: Sep-11-2025
